LME copper and SHFE copper both fell by 0.9% overnight! U.S. tariff concerns weighed down, while domestic PMI showed a three-day winning streak to provide support. [SMM Morning Comment on Copper]

Published: Apr 1, 2025 08:45

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LME copper and SHFE copper both fell by 0.9% overnight! US tariff concerns weigh down, while domestic PMI shows a three-day winning streak to provide support. Macro side, the uncertainty of US tariff policies has led to a cautious sentiment in the market, with concerns that US tariffs may harm the global economy. Meanwhile, the CSPT meeting did not announce further production cut plans, causing copper prices to fluctuate downward. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI continues to rise, remaining in the expansion territory for two consecutive months, providing bottom support for copper prices.

SMM April 1: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,707.5/mt, with the highest price reaching $9,747.5/mt and the lowest price dropping to $9,679.5/mt, finally closing at $9,690.0/mt. It fell by $93.5/mt, or 0.96%, compared to the previous close of $9,783.5/mt. The trading volume was 18,271, and the open interest was 308,330. The overall trend showed a downward fluctuation, with prices experiencing volatility after opening and eventually closing lower. Overnight, SHFE copper 2505 contract opened at 79,860 yuan/mt, with the highest price reaching 79,940 yuan/mt and the lowest price dropping to 79,430 yuan/mt, finally closing at 79,650 yuan/mt. It fell by 670 yuan/mt, or 0.83%, compared to the previous close of 79,950 yuan/mt. The trading volume was 46,572, and the open interest was 197,696. The overall trend showed a downward fluctuation, with prices fluctuating after opening and gradually declining, eventually closing lower. Macro-wise, the uncertainty of US tariff policies has created a cautious sentiment in the market, with concerns that US tariffs may harm the global economy. Meanwhile, the CSPT meeting did not announce further production cut plans, leading to a downward fluctuation in copper prices. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI continued to rise, remaining in expansion territory for two consecutive months, providing bottom support for copper prices. On the fundamental side, under high price spreads, some supplies flowed from east China to south China, increasing social inventories in Guangdong. Meanwhile, destocking in east China was slower, and current consumption recovery is sluggish. Recently, some imported copper is expected to arrive at ports, hindering the pace of social inventory destocking. As of Monday, March 31, SMM's national mainstream copper inventories increased by 2,700 mt WoW to 337,200 mt. Compared to the inventory changes from last Friday, only Shanghai saw destocking, while inventories in other regions increased. The total inventory was 54,000 mt lower YoY than the 391,200 mt from the same period last year. Overall, the market sentiment remains cautious, but with improving demand prospects and recovering physical buying, copper prices are expected to find support today.

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